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Nepean vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
J. Tran 90+3'
G. Chiba 83'
C. Shaddock 68'
C. Philpot 14'
5/7/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 9Jamison Park Field 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean30%
×Draw23%
Hakoah Sydney City48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.42
Hakoah Sydney City
1.85

Hakoah Sydney City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
52%
Nepean or Hakoah Sydney City
77%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
70%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
13%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
76%
Nepean 2+ goals
41%
Nepean 3+ goals
17%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
84%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
55%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
38%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nepean scores more
30%
level
23%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
48%

Hakoah Sydney City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
C. Philpot
68'
C. Shaddock
83'
G. Chiba
90+3'
J. Tran

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Nepean 0–4 Hakoah Sydney City

Hakoah Sydney City beat Nepean 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 7, 2024.

Goals: C. Philpot (14'), C. Shaddock (68'), G. Chiba (83'), J. Tran (90+3').

The match was played at Jamison Park Field 6 in Sydney.