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Hakoah Sydney City vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
H. Neskovski 75'
P. Lapanaitis 41'
Fuchs Josh 32'
C. Philpot 9'
7/13/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City52%
×Draw24%
Nepean25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
1.75
Nepean
1.13

Hakoah Sydney City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
75%
Hakoah Sydney City or Nepean
76%
Draw or Nepean
48%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
28%
Nepean wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
83%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
52%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
25%
Nepean 1+ goals
68%
Nepean 2+ goals
31%
Nepean 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
68%
Nepean (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nepean attack 0.67 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
52%
level
24%
Nepean scores more
25%

Hakoah Sydney City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
C. Philpot
32'
Fuchs Josh
41'
P. Lapanaitis
75'
H. Neskovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hakoah Sydney City vs Nepean

Hakoah Sydney City beat Nepean 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 13, 2024.

Goals: C. Philpot (9'), Fuchs Josh (32'), P. Lapanaitis (41'), H. Neskovski (75').

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.