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Nepean vs Blacktown Spartans — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
0 – 1
Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
3/29/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 8Cook Park Saint Marys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean31%
×Draw23%
Blacktown Spartans46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.40
Blacktown Spartans
1.76

Blacktown Spartans creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Blacktown Spartans
1.67

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Blacktown Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
54%
Nepean or Blacktown Spartans
77%
Draw or Blacktown Spartans
69%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
14%
Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
75%
Nepean 2+ goals
41%
Nepean 3+ goals
17%
Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
83%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
52%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
40%
Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nepean scores more
31%
level
23%
Blacktown Spartans scores more
46%

Blacktown Spartans at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Nepean 0–1 Blacktown Spartans

Blacktown Spartans beat Nepean 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Cook Park Saint Marys in Sydney.