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Blacktown Spartans vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
A. Chance 52'
7/5/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 23Blacktown Football Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Blacktown Spartans54%
×Draw23%
Nepean23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
1.81
Nepean
1.11

Blacktown Spartans creates 63% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
77%
Blacktown Spartans or Nepean
77%
Draw or Nepean
46%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
30%
Nepean wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
84%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
54%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
27%
Nepean 1+ goals
67%
Nepean 2+ goals
30%
Nepean 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
70%
Nepean (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nepean attack 0.67 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
54%
level
23%
Nepean scores more
23%

Blacktown Spartans at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
A. Chance
85'
D. Ellem
85'
D. Ellem
90'
J. Hatem
90'
J. Hatem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blacktown Spartans vs Nepean

Blacktown Spartans beat Nepean 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Chance (52').

The match was played at Blacktown Football Park 1 in Sydney.