Nepean 0–1 Bankstown City Lions: Result & Stats

Nepean

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bankstown City Lions

4/26/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12Cook Park Saint Marys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean29%

×Draw23%

Bankstown City Lions48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NepeanExpected goals in this matchBankstown City Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.78

Nepean

1.33

Bankstown City Lions

1.78

Bankstown City Lions creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

1.13

creates per match

1.49

2.07

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Nepean

1.13

Bankstown City Lions

1.49

allows per match

Nepean

2.07

Bankstown City Lions

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Bankstown City Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nepean or draw

52%

Nepean or Bankstown City Lions

77%

Draw or Bankstown City Lions

71%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+

12%

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals

74%

Nepean 2+ goals

38%

Nepean 3+ goals

15%

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals

83%

Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals

53%

Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)

38%

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nepean scores more

29%

level

23%

Bankstown City Lions scores more

48%

Bankstown City Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff