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Bankstown City Lions vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
R. Desilva 35'
8/3/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 27Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bankstown City Lions53%
×Draw25%
Nepean22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankstown City Lions
1.64
Nepean
0.96

Bankstown City Lions creates 71% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.60
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.25
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw
78%
Bankstown City Lions or Nepean
75%
Draw or Nepean
47%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
29%
Nepean wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
81%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
49%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
23%
Nepean 1+ goals
62%
Nepean 2+ goals
25%
Nepean 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
71%
Nepean (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nepean attack 0.67 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more
53%
level
25%
Nepean scores more
22%

Bankstown City Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
R. Desilva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bankstown City Lions vs Nepean

Bankstown City Lions beat Nepean 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: R. Desilva (35').

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.