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NEOM vs Al Najma — Pro League 2025

NEOM
NEOM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najma
Al Najma
K. Al Dawsari 89'
N. Zeze 54'
B. Boutobba 90' (pen)
12/25/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 11King Khalid Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM55%
×Draw23%
Al Najma22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
1.77
Al Najma
1.03

NEOM creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

NEOM
1.18
Al Najma
0.65

allows per match

NEOM
1.41
Al Najma
2.35

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
78%
NEOM or Al Najma
77%
Draw or Al Najma
45%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
31%
Al Najma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
83%
NEOM 2+ goals
53%
NEOM 3+ goals
26%
Al Najma 1+ goals
64%
Al Najma 2+ goals
28%
Al Najma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
71%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Al Najma away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 1.18 + Al Najma defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Najma attack 0.65 + NEOM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NEOM scores more
55%
level
23%
Al Najma scores more
22%

NEOM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. Al ShammeriAl NajmaAl Najma · M
7.5

Match Events

11'
Rakan Al-Tulayhi
51'
Faris Abdi
54'
N. Zeze
64'
A. Jasim← R. Al Tulayhi
67'
A. Al Asmari← A. Doucoure
71'
A. Al Hawsawi← F. Al Abdulraziq
75'
T. Al Khaibri← A. Abdu
75'
A. Hejji← S. Benrahma
77'
Deybi Flores
82'
F. Al Mutairi← R. Quioto
82'
H. Al Dubais← N. Al Haleel
89'
K. Al Dawsari↳ A. Hejji
90+6'
Khaled Eid
90+6'
S. Al Faraj← H. Al Ali
90'
B. BoutobbaPenalty

Possession

55%NEOM

Shots

12NEOM

Pass accuracy

51%NEOM

Statistics

NEOMAl
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots10
2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.13
5Corners3
12Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target2
5Off Target5
2Blocked3
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
481Total Passes406
418Accurate Passes338
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Pro League: NEOM 2–1 Al Najma

NEOM beat Al Najma 2-1 in Pro League on December 25, 2025.

Goals: N. Zeze (54'), K. Al Dawsari (89'), B. Boutobba (90' pen).

NEOM controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at King Khalid Sports City in Tabuk.