Al Najma vs NEOM — Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Al Najma29%
NEOM47%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
NEOM creates 32% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Najma ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Najma at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches
NEOM away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Najma attack 1.24 + NEOM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32
NEOM attack 1.35 + Al Najma defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
NEOM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Al-Nassr
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Taawon
Al-EttifaqNEOM
Al-Hazm
Al-Fayha
Al-Fateh
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Shabab
Al Kholood
Al Riyadh
Damac
Al OkhdoodAl NajmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Al Najma host NEOM on Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Al Najma vs NEOM
Al Najma beat NEOM 2-1 in Pro League on April 11, 2026.
Goals: S. M. Al Aqel M. (43'), B. Boutobba (47'), A. Kone (56').
NEOM controlled possession (76%) and registered 33 shots to 6.
The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Buraidah.