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NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

NEOM
NEOM
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
M. Diagne 85', 62'
A. Al Hassan 45+3'
Carlos Junior 43'
A. Makin 90+4'
5/5/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 32King Khalid Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NEOM50%
×Draw24%
Al-Faisaly FC26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEOM
1.71
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

NEOM creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

NEOM
2.24
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

NEOM
0.88
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

NEOM+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEOM ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NEOM or draw
74%
NEOM or Al-Faisaly FC
76%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
50%

Winning margin

NEOM wins by 2+
27%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NEOM 1+ goals
82%
NEOM 2+ goals
51%
NEOM 3+ goals
24%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
69%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
33%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NEOM (draw refunded)
65%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEOM at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEOM attack 2.24 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + NEOM defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NEOM scores more
50%
level
24%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
26%

NEOM at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Carlos Junior
45+3'
A. Al Hassan
62'
M. Diagne
85'
M. Diagne
90+4'
A. Makin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC

NEOM beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-1 in Division 1 on May 5, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Junior (43'), A. Al Hassan (45+3'), M. Diagne (62', 85'), A. Makin (90+4').

The match was played at King Khalid Sport City Stadium in Tabouk.