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Al-Faisaly FC vs NEOM — Division 1 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
NEOM
NEOM
Morato 90+14'
M. Majrashi 47'
A. Ba 45+10'
M. Diagne 90+5' (pen)
F. Al Harbi 39'
1/6/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC23%
×Draw23%
NEOM54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
1.13
NEOM
1.84

NEOM creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.54
NEOM
2.47

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.21
NEOM
0.71

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
NEOM+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

NEOM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
46%
Al-Faisaly FC or NEOM
77%
Draw or NEOM
77%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
9%
NEOM wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
31%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
11%
NEOM 1+ goals
84%
NEOM 2+ goals
55%
NEOM 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
30%
NEOM (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

NEOM away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.54 + NEOM defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

NEOM attack 2.47 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
23%
level
23%
NEOM scores more
54%

NEOM at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NEOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
F. Al Harbi
45+10'
A. Ba
47'
M. Majrashi
90+5'
M. DiagnePenalty
90+14'
Morato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Faisaly FC 3 – 2 NEOM

Al-Faisaly FC beat NEOM 3-2 in Division 1 on January 6, 2025.

Goals: F. Al Harbi (39'), A. Ba (45+10'), M. Majrashi (47'), M. Diagne (90+5' pen), Morato (90+14').

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.