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Nenzing vs Meiningen — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Nenzing
Nenzing
FT
2 – 0
Meiningen
Meiningen
7/16/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 1Sportplatz Nenzing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nenzing53%
×Draw20%
Meiningen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nenzing
2.32
Meiningen
1.62

Nenzing creates 43% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nenzing
2.04
Meiningen
1.40

allows per match

Nenzing
1.84
Meiningen
2.60

finishing

Nenzing+0.00on par
Meiningen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nenzing ↓

Meiningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Nenzing or draw
73%
Nenzing or Meiningen
80%
Draw or Meiningen
47%

Winning margin

Nenzing wins by 2+
33%
Meiningen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nenzing 1+ goals
90%
Nenzing 2+ goals
67%
Nenzing 3+ goals
40%
Meiningen 1+ goals
80%
Meiningen 2+ goals
48%
Meiningen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nenzing (draw refunded)
66%
Meiningen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nenzing at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

Meiningen away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nenzing attack 2.04 + Meiningen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.32

Meiningen attack 1.40 + Nenzing defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nenzing scores more
53%
level
20%
Meiningen scores more
27%

Nenzing at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nenzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nenzing vs Meiningen

Nenzing beat Meiningen 2-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on July 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Nenzing in Nenzing.