Meiningen 0–3 Nenzing: Result & Stats

Meiningen

FT

0 – 3

Nenzing

10/30/2021

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 18Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meiningen44%

×Draw22%

Nenzing35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeiningenExpected goals in this matchNenzing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.74

Meiningen

1.98

Nenzing

1.74

Meiningen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

1.80

creates per match

1.81

1.67

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Meiningen

1.80

Nenzing

1.81

allows per match

Meiningen

1.67

Nenzing

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meiningen+0.00on par

Nenzing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meiningen ↓

Nenzing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Meiningen or draw

65%

Meiningen or Nenzing

78%

Draw or Nenzing

56%

Winning margin

Meiningen wins by 2+

24%

Nenzing wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Meiningen 1+ goals

86%

Meiningen 2+ goals

59%

Meiningen 3+ goals

31%

Nenzing 1+ goals

82%

Nenzing 2+ goals

52%

Nenzing 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Meiningen (draw refunded)

56%

Nenzing (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meiningen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Nenzing away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meiningen attack 1.80 + Nenzing defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nenzing attack 1.81 + Meiningen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meiningen scores more

44%

level

22%

Nenzing scores more

35%

Meiningen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Meiningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff