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Neman vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
4/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Neman51%
×Draw27%
FC Slutsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.44
FC Slutsk
0.84

Neman creates 71% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 118 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
FC Slutsk
0.87

allows per match

Neman
0.82
FC Slutsk
1.58

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Neman or draw
78%
Neman or FC Slutsk
73%
Draw or FC Slutsk
49%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
26%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
76%
Neman 2+ goals
42%
Neman 3+ goals
18%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
57%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
21%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
70%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.82 · 125 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + FC Slutsk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Slutsk attack 0.87 + Neman defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Neman scores more
51%
level
27%
FC Slutsk scores more
22%

Neman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neman vs FC Slutsk

Neman beat FC Slutsk 2-1 in Premier League on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Neman in Grodno.