Neman 2–0 FC Slutsk: Result & Stats

Neman

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Slutsk

11/11/2023

Premier League · Round 28Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Neman51%

×Draw27%

FC Slutsk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NemanExpected goals in this matchFC Slutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.86

Neman

1.44

FC Slutsk

0.86

Neman creates 67% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 120 away

1.30

creates per match

0.88

0.84

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Neman

1.30

FC Slutsk

0.88

allows per match

Neman

0.84

FC Slutsk

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neman+0.00on par

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

FC Slutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Neman or draw

78%

Neman or FC Slutsk

73%

Draw or FC Slutsk

49%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+

25%

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals

76%

Neman 2+ goals

42%

Neman 3+ goals

18%

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

58%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

21%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)

69%

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.57 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + FC Slutsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Slutsk attack 0.88 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Neman scores more

51%

level

27%

FC Slutsk scores more

22%

Neman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff