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Neman vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

Neman
Neman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
3/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Neman35%
×Draw28%
Bate Borisov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
1.13
Bate Borisov
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 125 away

creates per match

Neman
1.30
Bate Borisov
1.50

allows per match

Neman
0.84
Bate Borisov
0.95

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Neman or draw
63%
Neman or Bate Borisov
72%
Draw or Bate Borisov
65%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
14%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
68%
Neman 2+ goals
31%
Neman 3+ goals
11%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
69%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
33%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
49%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bate Borisov attack 1.50 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Neman scores more
35%
level
28%
Bate Borisov scores more
37%

Bate Borisov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Neman 0–0 Bate Borisov

Neman and Bate Borisov drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Neman in Grodno.