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Neman vs Bate Borisov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Neman
Neman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
2/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Neman71%
×Draw19%
Bate Borisov10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman
2.00
Bate Borisov
0.58

Neman creates 245% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Neman
2.50
Bate Borisov
0.33

allows per match

Neman
0.83
Bate Borisov
1.50

finishing

Neman+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Neman or draw
90%
Neman or Bate Borisov
81%
Draw or Bate Borisov
29%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+
45%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals
86%
Neman 2+ goals
59%
Neman 3+ goals
32%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
44%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
12%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)
88%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 2.50 + Bate Borisov defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bate Borisov attack 0.33 + Neman defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Neman scores more
71%
level
19%
Bate Borisov scores more
10%

Neman at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Neman 0–0 Bate Borisov

Neman and Bate Borisov drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 6, 2026.