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Neman Grodno Res. vs Belshina Res. — League #562 2026

Neman Grodno Res.
Neman Grodno Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belshina Res.
Belshina Res.
5/30/2022League #562League #562 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neman Grodno Res.86%
×Draw9%
Belshina Res.5%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman Grodno Res.
4.00
Belshina Res.
1.00

Neman Grodno Res. creates 300% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Neman Grodno Res.
4.00
Belshina Res.
1.00

allows per match

Neman Grodno Res.
1.00
Belshina Res.
4.00

finishing

Neman Grodno Res.+0.00on par
Belshina Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman Grodno Res. ↓

Belshina Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Neman Grodno Res. or draw
95%
Neman Grodno Res. or Belshina Res.
91%
Draw or Belshina Res.
14%

Winning margin

Neman Grodno Res. wins by 2+
71%
Belshina Res. wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Neman Grodno Res. 1+ goals
98%
Neman Grodno Res. 2+ goals
90%
Neman Grodno Res. 3+ goals
73%
Belshina Res. 1+ goals
63%
Belshina Res. 2+ goals
26%
Belshina Res. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Neman Grodno Res. (draw refunded)
94%
Belshina Res. (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman Grodno Res. at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Belshina Res. away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman Grodno Res. attack 4.00 + Belshina Res. defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Belshina Res. attack 1.00 + Neman Grodno Res. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Neman Grodno Res. scores more
86%
level
9%
Belshina Res. scores more
5%

Neman Grodno Res. at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Neman Grodno Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #562: Neman Grodno Res. 0–1 Belshina Res.

Belshina Res. beat Neman Grodno Res. 1-0 in League #562 on May 30, 2022.