Belshina Res. 2–2 Neman Grodno Res.: Result & Stats

Belshina Res.

FT

2 – 2

Neman Grodno Res.

7/24/2020

League #562 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belshina Res.28%

×Draw28%

Neman Grodno Res.44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belshina Res.Expected goals in this matchNeman Grodno Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.33

Belshina Res.

1.00

Neman Grodno Res.

1.33

Neman Grodno Res. creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Belshina Res.

1.00

Neman Grodno Res.

1.33

allows per match

Belshina Res.

1.33

Neman Grodno Res.

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina Res.+0.00on par

Neman Grodno Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina Res. ↓

Neman Grodno Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Belshina Res. or draw

56%

Belshina Res. or Neman Grodno Res.

72%

Draw or Neman Grodno Res.

72%

Winning margin

Belshina Res. wins by 2+

10%

Neman Grodno Res. wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Belshina Res. 1+ goals

63%

Belshina Res. 2+ goals

26%

Belshina Res. 3+ goals

8%

Neman Grodno Res. 1+ goals

74%

Neman Grodno Res. 2+ goals

38%

Neman Grodno Res. 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Belshina Res. (draw refunded)

39%

Neman Grodno Res. (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina Res. at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Neman Grodno Res. away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina Res. attack 1.00 + Neman Grodno Res. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Neman Grodno Res. attack 1.33 + Belshina Res. defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belshina Res. scores more

28%

level

28%

Neman Grodno Res. scores more

44%

Neman Grodno Res. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Neman Grodno Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff