Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1–0 liaoning hongyun FC

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

liaoning hongyun FC

11/2/2019

League One · Round 30Hohhot City Stadium (Hohhot)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou47%

×Draw26%

liaoning hongyun FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nei Mongol ZhongyouExpected goals in this matchliaoning hongyun FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.09

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.50

liaoning hongyun FC

1.09

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.13

liaoning hongyun FC

1.10

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.08

liaoning hongyun FC

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw

72%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or liaoning hongyun FC

74%

Draw or liaoning hongyun FC

53%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

23%

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

78%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

44%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

19%

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

66%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

30%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

63%

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.13 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

47%

level

26%

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

28%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff