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liaoning hongyun FC vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
6/30/2019League OneLeague One · Round 15Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC39%
×Draw26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.40
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 40 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.15

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
65%
liaoning hongyun FC or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
74%
Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
61%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
18%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
75%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
41%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
17%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
73%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
38%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
52%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
39%
level
26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
35%

liaoning hongyun FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 0–1 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Nei Mongol Zhongyou beat liaoning hongyun FC 1-0 in League One on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.