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Nei Mongol Zhongyou vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
6/22/2019League OneLeague One · Round 14Hohhot City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou40%
×Draw28%
Guizhou Zhicheng32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.25
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.08

Nei Mongol Zhongyou creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 41 away

creates per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.14
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.11
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nei Mongol Zhongyou ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nei Mongol Zhongyou or draw
68%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou or Guizhou Zhicheng
72%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
60%

Winning margin

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
18%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
71%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
36%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
13%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
29%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
56%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.14 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
40%
level
28%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
32%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nei Mongol Zhongyou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1–0 Guizhou Zhicheng

Nei Mongol Zhongyou beat Guizhou Zhicheng 1-0 in League One on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Hohhot City Stadium in Hohhot.