Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guizhou Zhicheng vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
10/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 29Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng44%
×Draw26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.46
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.17

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 25% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.15

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
74%
Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
56%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
21%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
77%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
43%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
18%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
69%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
33%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
59%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
44%
level
26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
30%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2-1 in League One on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.