Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Negeri Sembilan vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Negeri Sembilan
Negeri Sembilan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FCadvanced
9/13/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Negeri Sembilan13%
×Draw18%
Johor Darul Takzim FC69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Negeri Sembilan
0.88
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.30

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 161% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.18
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.88

allows per match

Negeri Sembilan
1.73
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.58

finishing

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Negeri Sembilan ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Negeri Sembilan or draw
31%
Negeri Sembilan or Johor Darul Takzim FC
82%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
87%

Winning margin

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+
4%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals
59%
Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals
22%
Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals
6%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
90%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
67%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)
16%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Negeri Sembilan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.18 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.88

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.88 + Negeri Sembilan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Negeri Sembilan scores more
13%
level
18%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
69%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Negeri Sembilan 0–3 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Negeri Sembilan 3-0 in Malaysia Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Tuanku Abdul Rahman in Seremban.