Johor Darul Takzim FC 4–1 Negeri Sembilan

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Negeri Sembilan

9/23/2023

Malaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC75%

×Draw15%

Negeri Sembilan10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchNegeri Sembilan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

0.90

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.71

Negeri Sembilan

0.90

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 201% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

3.41

creates per match

1.31

0.48

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

3.41

Negeri Sembilan

1.31

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.48

Negeri Sembilan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Negeri Sembilan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Negeri Sembilan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

90%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Negeri Sembilan

85%

Draw or Negeri Sembilan

25%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

54%

Negeri Sembilan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

93%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

75%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

50%

Negeri Sembilan 1+ goals

59%

Negeri Sembilan 2+ goals

23%

Negeri Sembilan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

88%

Negeri Sembilan (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Negeri Sembilan away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + Negeri Sembilan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.71

Negeri Sembilan attack 1.31 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

75%

level

15%

Negeri Sembilan scores more

10%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff