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Neftochimic Burgas vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
FT
4 – 0
Haskovo
Haskovo
10/6/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 9Stadion Lazur (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas65%
×Draw21%
Haskovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftochimic Burgas
1.97
Haskovo
0.78

Neftochimic Burgas creates 153% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 47 away

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas
2.31
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas
0.69
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw
86%
Neftochimic Burgas or Haskovo
79%
Draw or Haskovo
35%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
40%
Haskovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
86%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
58%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
31%
Haskovo 1+ goals
54%
Haskovo 2+ goals
18%
Haskovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
82%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 2.31 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more
65%
level
21%
Haskovo scores more
14%

Neftochimic Burgas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Neftochimic Burgas 4–0 Haskovo

Neftochimic Burgas beat Haskovo 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Lazur (Burgas).