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Haskovo vs Neftochimic Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
0 – 3
Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
4/14/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 26Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Haskovo33%
×Draw25%
Neftochimic Burgas42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.27
Neftochimic Burgas
1.48

Neftochimic Burgas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 35 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Neftochimic Burgas
1.71

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Neftochimic Burgas
1.03

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
58%
Haskovo or Neftochimic Burgas
75%
Draw or Neftochimic Burgas
67%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
14%
Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
72%
Haskovo 2+ goals
36%
Haskovo 3+ goals
14%
Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
77%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
43%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
44%
Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.71 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haskovo scores more
33%
level
25%
Neftochimic Burgas scores more
42%

Neftochimic Burgas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Neftochimic Burgas

Neftochimic Burgas beat Haskovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo).