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Neftochimic Burgas vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
CANC
00:00
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
4/23/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 33Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas53%
×Draw25%
Botev Plovdiv II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftochimic Burgas
1.62
Botev Plovdiv II
0.96

Neftochimic Burgas creates 69% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas
1.31
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas
1.40
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw
78%
Neftochimic Burgas or Botev Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
47%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
28%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
80%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
48%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
22%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
62%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
25%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
70%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.31 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more
53%
level
25%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
22%

Neftochimic Burgas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Neftochimic Burgas host Botev Plovdiv II

April 23, 2022: Neftochimic Burgas take on Botev Plovdiv II in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Neftochimic Burgas host Botev Plovdiv II at Efbet Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.