Botev Plovdiv II 2–1 Neftochimic Burgas

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Neftochimic Burgas

D. Gichev 84'

M. Hristov 37'

D. Georgiev 67'

10/26/2021

Second League · Round 14Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II56%

×Draw23%

Neftochimic Burgas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchNeftochimic Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.04

Botev Plovdiv II

1.86

Neftochimic Burgas

1.04

Botev Plovdiv II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

1.20

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Neftochimic Burgas

0.88

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Neftochimic Burgas

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

79%

Botev Plovdiv II or Neftochimic Burgas

77%

Draw or Neftochimic Burgas

44%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

32%

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

84%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

55%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

28%

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

65%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

28%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

73%

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

Neftochimic Burgas attack 0.88 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

56%

level

23%

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

21%

Botev Plovdiv II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

S. Karagyozov

37'

M. Hristov

46'

P. Vutsov← D. Proychev

46'

59'

59'

67'

70'

V. Bogdanov← B. Danchev

74'

P. Vutsov

80'

V. Kunev← M. Kamenov

84'

D. Gichev

89'

K. da Costa← D. Zakonov

89'

M. Mechkov← Daniel Ivanov

Botev

Neftochimic

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Stoyanov

46'▲P. Vutsov←▼D. Proychev

46'▲S. Rabotov←▼Y. Kasov

59'▲D. Gichev←▼S. Popov

59'▲E. Kolev←▼N. Gelin

70'▲V. Bogdanov←▼B. Danchev

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

VutsovRabotovGichevKolevBogdanovPanevTsonchev

Manager: K. Genov

80'▲V. Kunev←▼M. Kamenov

89'▲K. da Costa←▼D. Zakonov

89'▲M. Mechkov←▼Daniel Ivanov

Neftochimic Burgas substitutes

KunevCostaMechkovGoiéSylvaRahnevSlavov