Neftochimic Burgas 2–0 Borislav 2009

Neftochimic Burgas

FT

2 – 0

Borislav 2009

5/11/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 31Stadion Lazur (Burgas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Neftochimic Burgas73%

×Draw17%

Borislav 200911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neftochimic BurgasExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.80

Neftochimic Burgas

2.42

Borislav 2009

0.80

Neftochimic Burgas creates 203% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 79 away

2.31

creates per match

0.91

0.69

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Neftochimic Burgas

2.31

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Neftochimic Burgas

0.69

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftochimic Burgas ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Neftochimic Burgas or draw

89%

Neftochimic Burgas or Borislav 2009

83%

Draw or Borislav 2009

27%

Winning margin

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

50%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

91%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

69%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

43%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

55%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

19%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

87%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftochimic Burgas at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftochimic Burgas attack 2.31 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.42

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

73%

level

17%

Borislav 2009 scores more

11%

Neftochimic Burgas at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff