Borislav 2009 1–2 Neftochimic Burgas

Borislav 2009

FT

1 – 2

Neftochimic Burgas

11/10/2018

Third League - Southeast · Round 14Stadion Borislav (Parvomay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Borislav 200933%

×Draw25%

Neftochimic Burgas42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borislav 2009Expected goals in this matchNeftochimic Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.50

Borislav 2009

1.31

Neftochimic Burgas

1.50

Neftochimic Burgas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 35 away

1.59

creates per match

1.71

1.29

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Borislav 2009

1.59

Neftochimic Burgas

1.71

allows per match

Borislav 2009

1.29

Neftochimic Burgas

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw

58%

Borislav 2009 or Neftochimic Burgas

75%

Draw or Neftochimic Burgas

67%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

14%

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

73%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

38%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

14%

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

78%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

44%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

44%

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.71 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more

33%

level

25%

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

42%

Neftochimic Burgas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff