Neftchi 3–2 Navbahor: Result & Stats | Super League

Neftchi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Navbahor

4/5/2025

Super League · Round 4Istiqlol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Neftchi43%

×Draw27%

Navbahor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeftchiExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.06

Neftchi

1.34

Navbahor

1.06

Neftchi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 100 away

1.57

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Neftchi

1.57

Navbahor

1.18

allows per match

Neftchi

0.95

Navbahor

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw

70%

Neftchi or Navbahor

73%

Draw or Navbahor

57%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+

20%

Navbahor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals

74%

Neftchi 2+ goals

39%

Neftchi 3+ goals

15%

Navbahor 1+ goals

65%

Navbahor 2+ goals

29%

Navbahor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)

59%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.11 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Navbahor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.34

Navbahor attack 1.18 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neftchi scores more

43%

level

27%

Navbahor scores more

30%

Neftchi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff