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Navbahor vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Neftchi
Neftchi
5/19/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Navbahor37%
×Draw31%
Neftchi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.06
Neftchi
0.96

Navbahor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 60 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.34
Neftchi
1.25

allows per match

Navbahor
0.66
Neftchi
0.78

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
68%
Navbahor or Neftchi
69%
Draw or Neftchi
63%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
15%
Neftchi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
65%
Navbahor 2+ goals
29%
Navbahor 3+ goals
9%
Neftchi 1+ goals
62%
Neftchi 2+ goals
25%
Neftchi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
54%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.66 · 98 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.34 + Neftchi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Neftchi attack 1.25 + Navbahor defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Navbahor scores more
37%
level
31%
Neftchi scores more
32%

Navbahor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navbahor vs Neftchi

Navbahor beat Neftchi 1-0 in Super League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.