Neftchi 1–0 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Neftchi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Metalourg

3/15/2024

Super League · Round 3Stadion Istiqlol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Neftchi48%

×Draw27%

Metalourg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeftchiExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.96

Neftchi

1.45

Metalourg

0.96

Neftchi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 79 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Neftchi

1.57

Metalourg

0.97

allows per match

Neftchi

0.95

Metalourg

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw

75%

Neftchi or Metalourg

73%

Draw or Metalourg

52%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+

24%

Metalourg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals

77%

Neftchi 2+ goals

42%

Neftchi 3+ goals

18%

Metalourg 1+ goals

62%

Metalourg 2+ goals

25%

Metalourg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)

66%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Metalourg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Metalourg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Metalourg attack 0.97 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neftchi scores more

48%

level

27%

Metalourg scores more

25%

Neftchi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff