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Metalourg vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Neftchi
Neftchi
10/25/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Metalourg28%
×Draw30%
Neftchi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
0.89
Neftchi
1.14

Neftchi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

creates per match

Metalourg
0.99
Neftchi
1.25

allows per match

Metalourg
1.03
Neftchi
0.78

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
59%
Metalourg or Neftchi
70%
Draw or Neftchi
72%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
10%
Neftchi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
59%
Metalourg 2+ goals
22%
Metalourg 3+ goals
6%
Neftchi 1+ goals
68%
Neftchi 2+ goals
32%
Neftchi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
41%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 0.99 + Neftchi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Neftchi attack 1.25 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metalourg scores more
28%
level
30%
Neftchi scores more
41%

Neftchi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Neftchi

Metalourg beat Neftchi 1-0 in Super League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.