Neftchi vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026
Neftchi have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 62+ matches
Neftchi51%
Dinamo Samarqand25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Neftchi creates 52% more chances
Season form · 63 home / 62 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Neftchi ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches
Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Neftchi attack 1.57 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.66
Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Neftchi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Neftchi sit 1, Dinamo Samarqand 14 in the table
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Pakhtakor
Lokomotiv
Bunyodkor
Sogdiana
Metalourg
Surkhon
Nasaf
Navbahor
Olmaliq
Andijan
Kokand-1912
BuxoroDinamo Samarqand
QizilqumIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Neftchi host Dinamo Samarqand on Friday, 27 November 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Neftchi vs Dinamo Samarqand — Match Preview
Neftchi face Dinamo Samarqand on November 27, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Neftchi host Dinamo Samarqand at Istiqlol Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.