Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neftchi
Neftchi
7/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand30%
×Draw28%
Neftchi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.02
Neftchi
1.27

Neftchi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Neftchi
1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.30
Neftchi
0.78

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
58%
Dinamo Samarqand or Neftchi
72%
Draw or Neftchi
70%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
11%
Neftchi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
8%
Neftchi 1+ goals
72%
Neftchi 2+ goals
36%
Neftchi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
41%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Neftchi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Neftchi attack 1.25 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
30%
level
28%
Neftchi scores more
42%

Neftchi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dinamo Samarqand 0–2 Neftchi

Neftchi beat Dinamo Samarqand 2-0 in Super League on July 2, 2025.

The match was played at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium in Samarkand.