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Neftchi vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Neftchi
Neftchi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
9/20/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Istiqlol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Neftchi51%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Samarqand24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi
1.68
Dinamo Samarqand
1.08

Neftchi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

creates per match

Neftchi
1.57
Dinamo Samarqand
1.22

allows per match

Neftchi
0.95
Dinamo Samarqand
1.78

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par
Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw
76%
Neftchi or Dinamo Samarqand
76%
Draw or Dinamo Samarqand
49%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals
81%
Neftchi 2+ goals
50%
Neftchi 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.22 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Neftchi scores more
51%
level
24%
Dinamo Samarqand scores more
24%

Neftchi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neftchi vs Dinamo Samarqand

Neftchi beat Dinamo Samarqand 2-1 in Super League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Istiqlol Stadium in Fergana.