Neftchi Baku 1–3 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Neftchi Baku

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Beşiktaş

8/10/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundNeftçi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Neftchi Baku37%

×Draw23%

Beşiktaş41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neftchi BakuExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.76

Neftchi Baku

1.67

Beşiktaş

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.20

creates per match

2.13

1.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Neftchi Baku

2.20

Beşiktaş

2.13

allows per match

Neftchi Baku

1.40

Beşiktaş

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi Baku ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Neftchi Baku or draw

59%

Neftchi Baku or Beşiktaş

77%

Draw or Beşiktaş

63%

Winning margin

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+

18%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals

81%

Neftchi Baku 2+ goals

50%

Neftchi Baku 3+ goals

23%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

83%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

52%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)

48%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi Baku at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi Baku attack 2.20 + Beşiktaş defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Beşiktaş attack 2.13 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Neftchi Baku scores more

37%

level

23%

Beşiktaş scores more

41%

Beşiktaş at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff