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Beşiktaş vs Neftchi Baku — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
8/17/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundBeşiktaş Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beşiktaş53%
×Draw22%
Neftchi Baku25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
2.00
Neftchi Baku
1.31

Beşiktaş creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.50
Neftchi Baku
0.75

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.88
Neftchi Baku
2.50

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
75%
Beşiktaş or Neftchi Baku
78%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
47%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
31%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
86%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
59%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
32%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
73%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
38%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
68%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Neftchi Baku defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Neftchi Baku attack 0.75 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
53%
level
22%
Neftchi Baku scores more
25%

Beşiktaş at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Beşiktaş 2–1 Neftchi Baku

Beşiktaş beat Neftchi Baku 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 17, 2023.

The match was played at Beşiktaş Park in İstanbul.