Neckarsulmer SU 0–2 Mutschelbach: Result & Stats

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mutschelbach

8/13/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 2Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU45%

×Draw22%

Mutschelbach33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchMutschelbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.64

Neckarsulmer SU

1.92

Mutschelbach

1.64

Neckarsulmer SU creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.68

1.60

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

Mutschelbach

1.68

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

Mutschelbach

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Mutschelbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

67%

Neckarsulmer SU or Mutschelbach

78%

Draw or Mutschelbach

55%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

25%

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

85%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

57%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

30%

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

81%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

49%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

57%

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Mutschelbach away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Mutschelbach defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mutschelbach attack 1.68 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

45%

level

22%

Mutschelbach scores more

33%

Neckarsulmer SU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff