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Mutschelbach vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
C. Reuer 77'
L. Lindner 72', 29'
C. Batke 58'
T. Fausel 8' (OG)
C. Bellanave 61'
11/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach49%
×Draw21%
Neckarsulmer SU29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.10
Neckarsulmer SU
1.59

Mutschelbach creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
71%
Mutschelbach or Neckarsulmer SU
79%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
51%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
29%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
88%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
62%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
35%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
80%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
47%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
63%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.10

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
49%
level
21%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
29%

Mutschelbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
T. FauselOwn goal
29'
L. Lindner
58'
C. Batke
61'
C. Bellanave
72'
L. Lindner
77'
C. Reuer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutschelbach vs Neckarsulmer SU

Mutschelbach beat Neckarsulmer SU 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 26, 2022.

Goals: T. Fausel (8' o.g.), L. Lindner (29', 72'), C. Batke (58'), C. Bellanave (61'), C. Reuer (77').

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.