Neckarsulmer SU 3–2 FC Rielasingen-Arlen

Neckarsulmer SU

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

S. Neupert 73'

E. G. McDonald 51'

P. Pander 23'

O. C. Ugondu 75'

T. Abe 10'

3/18/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23Neckarsulm Pichterich Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU46%

×Draw23%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neckarsulmer SUExpected goals in this matchFC Rielasingen-Arlen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.43

Neckarsulmer SU

1.79

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.43

Neckarsulmer SU creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

1.60

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.47

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

1.26

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU

1.60

FC Rielasingen-Arlen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw

69%

Neckarsulmer SU or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

77%

Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen

54%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

25%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

83%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

53%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

26%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals

76%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals

42%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

60%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

46%

level

23%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more

31%

Neckarsulmer SU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

T. Abe

23'

P. Pander

51'

E. G. McDonald

73'

S. Neupert

75'

O. C. Ugondu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff