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FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
O. C. Ugondu 8'
C. Bellanave 78'
M. Gebert 50'
K. Lushtaku 49'
L. Fischer 30'
9/4/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen48%
×Draw23%
Neckarsulmer SU29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.81
Neckarsulmer SU
1.36

FC Rielasingen-Arlen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.86
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.48
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rielasingen-Arlen ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Rielasingen-Arlen or draw
71%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen or Neckarsulmer SU
77%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
52%

Winning margin

FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
26%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
84%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
54%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
27%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
74%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
39%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
62%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.86 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
48%
level
23%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
29%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
O. C. Ugondu
30'
L. Fischer
49'
K. Lushtaku
50'
M. Gebert
78'
C. Bellanave

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rielasingen-Arlen vs Neckarsulmer SU

Neckarsulmer SU beat FC Rielasingen-Arlen 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 4, 2022.

Goals: O. C. Ugondu (8'), L. Fischer (30'), K. Lushtaku (49'), M. Gebert (50'), C. Bellanave (78').

The match was played at Sportanlage in den Talwiesen Platz 2 in Rielasingen-Worblingen.