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Neckarsulmer SU vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
3/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU37%
×Draw22%
FC Nottingen41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.68
FC Nottingen
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
59%
Neckarsulmer SU or FC Nottingen
78%
Draw or FC Nottingen
63%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
18%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
81%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
50%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
24%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
83%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
53%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
47%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
37%
level
22%
FC Nottingen scores more
41%

FC Nottingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neckarsulmer SU vs FC Nottingen

FC Nottingen beat Neckarsulmer SU 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.