FC Nottingen 2–1 Neckarsulmer SU: Result & Stats

FC Nottingen

FT

2 – 1

Neckarsulmer SU

9/10/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Nottingen53%

×Draw21%

Neckarsulmer SU25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NottingenExpected goals in this matchNeckarsulmer SU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.37

FC Nottingen

2.07

Neckarsulmer SU

1.37

FC Nottingen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 42 away

2.38

creates per match

1.24

1.50

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FC Nottingen

2.38

Neckarsulmer SU

1.24

allows per match

FC Nottingen

1.50

Neckarsulmer SU

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw

75%

FC Nottingen or Neckarsulmer SU

79%

Draw or Neckarsulmer SU

47%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+

32%

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals

87%

FC Nottingen 2+ goals

61%

FC Nottingen 3+ goals

34%

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

75%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

40%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)

68%

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.07

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Nottingen scores more

53%

level

21%

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

25%

FC Nottingen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff