Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neckarsulmer SU vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
S. Neupert 51'
C. Bellanave 30'
R. Munst 77'
K. Markopoulos 67' (pen)
W. Sauerborn 59', 43'
5/20/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU35%
×Draw24%
CFR Pforzheim42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.50
CFR Pforzheim
1.66

CFR Pforzheim creates 11% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
58%
Neckarsulmer SU or CFR Pforzheim
76%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
65%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
16%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
78%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
44%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
19%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
81%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
49%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
46%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
35%
level
24%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
42%

CFR Pforzheim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
C. Bellanave
43'
W. Sauerborn
51'
S. Neupert
59'
W. Sauerborn
67'
K. MarkopoulosPenalty
77'
R. Munst

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Neckarsulmer SU 2–4 CFR Pforzheim

CFR Pforzheim beat Neckarsulmer SU 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 20, 2023.

Goals: C. Bellanave (30'), W. Sauerborn (43', 59'), S. Neupert (51'), K. Markopoulos (67' pen), R. Munst (77').

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.