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CFR Pforzheim vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
6/4/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 38Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

CFR Pforzheim55%
×Draw21%
Neckarsulmer SU24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR Pforzheim
2.08
Neckarsulmer SU
1.31

CFR Pforzheim creates 59% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim
2.39
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim
1.39
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw
76%
CFR Pforzheim or Neckarsulmer SU
79%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
45%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
33%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
87%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
61%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
34%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
73%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
38%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
70%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.08

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more
55%
level
21%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
24%

CFR Pforzheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFR Pforzheim vs Neckarsulmer SU

CFR Pforzheim beat Neckarsulmer SU 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im Brötzinger Tal in Pforzheim.