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Neckarsulmer SU vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Backnang
Backnang
4/27/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU40%
×Draw23%
Backnang37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.65
Backnang
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Backnang
1.82

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
63%
Neckarsulmer SU or Backnang
77%
Draw or Backnang
60%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
20%
Backnang wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
81%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
49%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
23%
Backnang 1+ goals
79%
Backnang 2+ goals
47%
Backnang 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
52%
Backnang (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Backnang attack 1.57 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
40%
level
23%
Backnang scores more
37%

Neckarsulmer SU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neckarsulmer SU vs Backnang

Neckarsulmer SU beat Backnang 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.