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Backnang vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Backnang
Backnang
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
M. Weller 71', 68'
M. Muller 36'
5/13/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 32Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Backnang45%
×Draw23%
Neckarsulmer SU32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backnang
1.81
Neckarsulmer SU
1.48

Backnang creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Backnang
1.85
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Backnang
1.71
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Backnang or draw
68%
Backnang or Neckarsulmer SU
77%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
55%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+
25%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals
84%
Backnang 2+ goals
54%
Backnang 3+ goals
27%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
77%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
43%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)
59%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Backnang scores more
45%
level
23%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
32%

Backnang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
M. Muller
68'
M. Weller
71'
M. Weller

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backnang vs Neckarsulmer SU

Backnang beat Neckarsulmer SU 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 13, 2023.

Goals: M. Muller (36'), M. Weller (68', 71').

The match was played at Etzwiesenstadion in Backnang.