Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Necaxa vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
R. Contreras 67'
E. Gigliotti 48'
3/10/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa41%
×Draw26%
Toluca33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.45
Toluca
1.27

Necaxa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 149 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Toluca
1.24

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Toluca
1.53

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
67%
Necaxa or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
59%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
20%
Toluca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
77%
Necaxa 2+ goals
42%
Necaxa 3+ goals
18%
Toluca 1+ goals
72%
Toluca 2+ goals
36%
Toluca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
56%
Toluca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Toluca attack 1.24 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Necaxa scores more
41%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
33%

Necaxa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. GigliottiTolucaToluca · F
7.8

Match Events

12'
Adrian Mora
26'
Luis Mendoza
43'
Ventura Alvarado
46'
M. Barragán← C. Aguirre
48'
E. Gigliotti↳ S. García
55'
Felipe Gallegos
67'
R. Contreras↳ A. Sepúlveda
70'
R. Ruíz← A. Mora
74'
A. Medina← L. Mendoza
78'
R. Marín← R. Contreras
80'
H. Ruiz← A. Sepúlveda
81'
D. Abella← P. Barrientos
84'
Antonio Rios
90'
Ricardo Marín

Possession

53%Necaxa

Shots

14Necaxa

Pass accuracy

53%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaToluca
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots11
5Corners4
17Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots11
2On Target1
9Off Target8
3Blocked2
8Inside Box10
6Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
418Total Passes353
349Accurate Passes264
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls17
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Necaxa 1 – 1 Toluca

Necaxa and Toluca drew 1-1 in Liga MX on March 10, 2019.

Goals: E. Gigliotti (48'), R. Contreras (67').

Necaxa controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.